Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.944657 1.106855 1.288436 1.506799 1.762346 2.052049 2.405589
2024-10-27 0.657951 0.862898 1.119199 1.463414 1.914053 2.484666 3.263405
2024-11-03 0.527880 0.750025 1.050565 1.487194 2.106328 2.954528 4.208230
2024-11-10 0.466431 0.707238 1.054505 1.592313 2.406069 3.594646 5.469407
2024-11-17 0.407810 0.654003 1.029124 1.643005 2.625406 4.141895 6.672081
2024-11-24 0.353800 0.596455 0.984771 1.652292 2.775310 4.596567 7.791624
2024-12-01 0.306785 0.541231 0.933522 1.638757 2.880472 4.986768 8.854763
2024-12-08 0.269586 0.496006 0.890816 1.630601 2.989186 5.391585 9.994243
2024-12-15 0.242290 0.463643 0.864789 1.646160 3.138820 5.883077 11.353528
2024-12-22 0.209596 0.416146 0.804259 1.588286 3.142530 6.106467 12.239476
2024-12-29 0.201889 0.415218 0.830170 1.698116 3.480754 7.001251 14.550752
2025-01-05 0.177837 0.378137 0.780688 1.650889 3.499045 7.271732 15.640223
2025-01-12 0.155954 0.342962 0.731423 1.599615 3.507071 7.533393 16.775500
2025-01-19 0.137063 0.311510 0.685787 1.550008 3.512808 7.794046 17.956487
2025-01-26 0.126735 0.297351 0.675018 1.575001 3.685663 8.437699 20.089716
2025-02-02 0.123834 0.299646 0.700773 1.686340 4.070774 9.606839 23.615651
2025-02-09 0.117012 0.291667 0.701926 1.740038 4.327967 10.517038 26.660712
2025-02-16 0.108100 0.277271 0.685960 1.749876 4.479885 11.197902 29.242075
2025-02-23 0.098785 0.260469 0.661788 1.735537 4.568712 11.735498 31.537341
2025-03-02 0.090773 0.245848 0.641028 1.726898 4.670828 12.320170 34.045161
2025-03-09 0.084794 0.235741 0.630396 1.743380 4.841745 13.105792 37.215924
2025-03-16 0.075893 0.216400 0.592989 1.682073 4.792554 13.301697 38.781356
2025-03-23 0.075313 0.220204 0.618230 1.798418 5.255931 14.955359 44.760027